Dole's polling awfully these days, a sign that perhaps NC voters are coming around! I hope so! North Carolina -- my home state -- deserves much better than she could ever offer.
Public Policy Polling. 9/27-28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/17-19 numbers)
Hagan (D) 46 (46)
Dole (R) 38 (41)
Cole (R) 6 (6)
Very impressive numbers for Hagan - the best she has shown all cycle, even after a series of impressive polls for the Democratic candidate.
PPP is known as a Dem-leaning pollster, though a generally reliable and trustworthy one. These results are also not out of line with PPP's previous polls in the state. We'll be waiting anxiously for confirmation of this poll.
If the poll is accurate, it's simply awful news for incumbent Elizabeth Dole. Polling at 38% is always terrible news for an incumbent, but it could be the kiss of death five weeks before the election.
The results are every bit as good in the presidential race, relative to previous numbers:
Public Policy Polling. 9/27-28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (9/17-19 numbers)
Obama (D) 47 (46)
McCain (R) 45 (46)
Pretty much in line with prior PPP polling. This poll would appear to solidify the new conventional wisdom that North Carolina, with its 15 electoral votes, is too close to call at this point.
That's a remarkable statement, considering even Bill Clinton failed to win North Carolina in both campaigns. If this poll resembles his internals - and it dovetails with Pollster's recent trends - John McCain must be weeping.
